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Wanted: eu anchor - deputy pm hryhoriy nemyria
08 September 2008
Published in Business Ukraine
By: Peter Dickson
Ukraine’s government prepared to sit down with EU leaders for their crucial summit meeting this week against a backdrop of political collapse in Kyiv and international impotence in the face of a resurgent Russia. The man faced with the considerable task of keeping Ukraine’s EU push on track is Hryhoriy Nemyria, Deputy Prime Minister for European Integration and a key member of PM Yulia Tymoshenko’s inner circle. Regarded by many to be one of the most influential members of the Tymoshenko cabinet, Mr. Nemyria’s appointment to lead the country’s EU integration efforts last December was hailed as a demonstration of the new administration’s commitment to prioritising Euro-Atlantic integration.
Previous administrations had appointed more junior officials to co-ordinate integration policy, but in practice these efforts had been at best piecemeal, reflecting the cautious and often contradictory policy towards the EU often adopted in the past. By uniting all integration efforts into a single agency with access to the very top of government, the Tymoshenko administration claimed it would be introduce a whole new dynamic into the process.
Mr. Nemyria’s efforts were initially rewarded by success in achieving WTO membership and solid progress in talks over a new and improved free trade zone with the EU, so it might in other circumstances have been safe to assume that security concerns sparked by Russia’s invasion of Georgia would be enough to encourage previously hesitant EU leaders to embrace Ukraine. However, thanks partly to the escalating political turmoil in Kyiv, this is now looking increasingly unlikely.
Orange civil war threatens to derail integration push
The recent conflict in Georgia certainly did much to focus attention on Ukraine’s ongoing struggle to emerge from geopolitical limbo, but despite the apparent opportunities for fast-track integration presented by Russia’s war, the internecine conflict now raging within Ukraine’s own Orange political camp could yet serve to bolster the opponents of the country’s EU perspective. “Not even the smartest media campaign could hide the strategic vulnerability coming from the duplication of powers in Ukraine,” Mr. Nemyria concedes. “How can the country be credibly received when the President’s aides are accusing the Prime Minister of treason and the security services are used as an instrument to harass opponents? These are precisely the instruments of a managed democracy. If we continue in this direction we face a huge step backwards away from everything that the Orange Revolution was about. In that situation it will be difficult for Ukraine to utilise those opportunities which currently exist for deeper integration into the EU itself.”
EU changes its energy priorities
Mr. Nemyria accepts that last week’s lukewarm response from EU leaders to Russian policy over Georgia’s breakaway regions was a reflection of what he calls ‘The mainstream view,” within the bloc, but he remains convinced that on a broader scale the EU’s leaders are now viewing the strategic interests from a radically different perspective in light of the region’s new geopolitical realities. “This conflict has opened the eyes of the EU to the reality of what it needs to do and how much it is going to cost to stabilise the neighbourhood,” he states, arguing that the Georgian campaign made a deep impression on EU thinking towards energy policy. This has led to calls for a unified bargaining position and diversification in order to lessen its dependence on Russian supplies, something which Mr. Nemyria’s boss PM Tymoshenko has repeatedly advocated. “Before the Russia – Georgia conflict it was right to say “No security without energy.” Now it is equally correct to say, “No energy without security,”” he says. ”While I was in Georgia I saw the damage done to their pipeline by Russian bombing. It shows how vulnerable and fragile the energy supply routes from Eurasia to the EU are. This recognition that there can be no energy without security has led the EU to place a specific emphasis on energy diversification.”
By: Peter Dickson
Ukraine’s government prepared to sit down with EU leaders for their crucial summit meeting this week against a backdrop of political collapse in Kyiv and international impotence in the face of a resurgent Russia. The man faced with the considerable task of keeping Ukraine’s EU push on track is Hryhoriy Nemyria, Deputy Prime Minister for European Integration and a key member of PM Yulia Tymoshenko’s inner circle. Regarded by many to be one of the most influential members of the Tymoshenko cabinet, Mr. Nemyria’s appointment to lead the country’s EU integration efforts last December was hailed as a demonstration of the new administration’s commitment to prioritising Euro-Atlantic integration.
Previous administrations had appointed more junior officials to co-ordinate integration policy, but in practice these efforts had been at best piecemeal, reflecting the cautious and often contradictory policy towards the EU often adopted in the past. By uniting all integration efforts into a single agency with access to the very top of government, the Tymoshenko administration claimed it would be introduce a whole new dynamic into the process.
Mr. Nemyria’s efforts were initially rewarded by success in achieving WTO membership and solid progress in talks over a new and improved free trade zone with the EU, so it might in other circumstances have been safe to assume that security concerns sparked by Russia’s invasion of Georgia would be enough to encourage previously hesitant EU leaders to embrace Ukraine. However, thanks partly to the escalating political turmoil in Kyiv, this is now looking increasingly unlikely.
Orange civil war threatens to derail integration push
The recent conflict in Georgia certainly did much to focus attention on Ukraine’s ongoing struggle to emerge from geopolitical limbo, but despite the apparent opportunities for fast-track integration presented by Russia’s war, the internecine conflict now raging within Ukraine’s own Orange political camp could yet serve to bolster the opponents of the country’s EU perspective. “Not even the smartest media campaign could hide the strategic vulnerability coming from the duplication of powers in Ukraine,” Mr. Nemyria concedes. “How can the country be credibly received when the President’s aides are accusing the Prime Minister of treason and the security services are used as an instrument to harass opponents? These are precisely the instruments of a managed democracy. If we continue in this direction we face a huge step backwards away from everything that the Orange Revolution was about. In that situation it will be difficult for Ukraine to utilise those opportunities which currently exist for deeper integration into the EU itself.”
EU changes its energy priorities
Mr. Nemyria accepts that last week’s lukewarm response from EU leaders to Russian policy over Georgia’s breakaway regions was a reflection of what he calls ‘The mainstream view,” within the bloc, but he remains convinced that on a broader scale the EU’s leaders are now viewing the strategic interests from a radically different perspective in light of the region’s new geopolitical realities. “This conflict has opened the eyes of the EU to the reality of what it needs to do and how much it is going to cost to stabilise the neighbourhood,” he states, arguing that the Georgian campaign made a deep impression on EU thinking towards energy policy. This has led to calls for a unified bargaining position and diversification in order to lessen its dependence on Russian supplies, something which Mr. Nemyria’s boss PM Tymoshenko has repeatedly advocated. “Before the Russia – Georgia conflict it was right to say “No security without energy.” Now it is equally correct to say, “No energy without security,”” he says. ”While I was in Georgia I saw the damage done to their pipeline by Russian bombing. It shows how vulnerable and fragile the energy supply routes from Eurasia to the EU are. This recognition that there can be no energy without security has led the EU to place a specific emphasis on energy diversification.”
Reheating frozen conflicts
While the energy factor has dominated much of the debate in recent weeks over how the EU should respond to Russian aggression, European minds have also been focused by the speed with which a supposedly frozen conflict in the Caucasus was transformed into a full scale warzone. With numerous similar frozen conflicts located throughout the former USSR, not least on the EU’s doorstep in Moldova, the threat of military destabilisation has become more real than at any time since the early 1990s when the Balkan conflict threatened the EU’s southern flank. “The lesson we learned from these events is that a security vacuum exists and Ukraine is part of this vacuum. Clearly events in the southern Caucasus have exposed the failure of the EU’s neighbourhood policy (ENP). As it stands the existing ENP cannot contribute to the greater stability in the region. It is equally clear that the situation cannot be left alone as it is,” Mr. Nemyria argues. “There is an opportunity here for the EU to take Ukraine seriously in terms of its integration, specifically into European security and defence policy (ESDP),” he adds.
The quest for an EU anchor
While many international commentators are already speculating over the implications of the wording of any declaration to come out of this week’s EU-Ukraine summit, Mr. Nemyria cautions against paying too much attention to the small print and aims to focus instead on the substance of any new agreement reached. “This is an opportunity for the EU to deliver what Ukraine, unlike her east European neighbours, has always been lacking - an EU anchor.” He adds that in practice this would mean more formal ties with ESDP, a roadmap to future visa-free travel as well as the planned free trade agreement. “If political association and economic integration are the substance of the declaration, then I would consider it a success,” Mr. Nemyria states.
Time to acknowledge Ukraine’s democratic gains
Despite considerable opposition in both Moscow and Brussels to Ukraine’s European integrationist ambitions, Mr. Nemyria paints a persuasive picture of the country’s Euro credentials, arguing that Kyiv has not yet received the kind of EU recognition it deserves for the successes of the past 17 years in avoiding some of the worse excesses which followed the Soviet collapse.
He points to the absence of any ethnic violence in independent Ukraine as one of the country’s greatest achievements, and despite growing public disillusionment with the country’s squabbling political class remains defiantly upbeat about Ukraine’s embryonic parliamentary pluralism. “Despite the democratic mess we seem to be continually witnessing, the country’s democratic institutions are actually becoming more stable,” he claims. “According to European standards the last three Ukrainian elections in a row have been democratic. This is a very precious value in today’s world, especially given the reemergence of authoritarian trends in the region. We have consistently said since 2004 that the Orange Revolution was not a choice between the West and Russia, but a choice between democracy and authoritarianism.”
Having made their choice, Ukrainians now find themselves waiting for their political class to catch up before it is too late.“The political impasse in the country must be resolved in some way,” argues Mr. Nemyria. “What is at stake is a chance for Ukraine to move decisively towards the EU. There is practically consensus both on a public level and on a political level in favour of EU integration. We now need to offer the minimum level of stability to be reliable partners in the process.”
While the energy factor has dominated much of the debate in recent weeks over how the EU should respond to Russian aggression, European minds have also been focused by the speed with which a supposedly frozen conflict in the Caucasus was transformed into a full scale warzone. With numerous similar frozen conflicts located throughout the former USSR, not least on the EU’s doorstep in Moldova, the threat of military destabilisation has become more real than at any time since the early 1990s when the Balkan conflict threatened the EU’s southern flank. “The lesson we learned from these events is that a security vacuum exists and Ukraine is part of this vacuum. Clearly events in the southern Caucasus have exposed the failure of the EU’s neighbourhood policy (ENP). As it stands the existing ENP cannot contribute to the greater stability in the region. It is equally clear that the situation cannot be left alone as it is,” Mr. Nemyria argues. “There is an opportunity here for the EU to take Ukraine seriously in terms of its integration, specifically into European security and defence policy (ESDP),” he adds.
The quest for an EU anchor
While many international commentators are already speculating over the implications of the wording of any declaration to come out of this week’s EU-Ukraine summit, Mr. Nemyria cautions against paying too much attention to the small print and aims to focus instead on the substance of any new agreement reached. “This is an opportunity for the EU to deliver what Ukraine, unlike her east European neighbours, has always been lacking - an EU anchor.” He adds that in practice this would mean more formal ties with ESDP, a roadmap to future visa-free travel as well as the planned free trade agreement. “If political association and economic integration are the substance of the declaration, then I would consider it a success,” Mr. Nemyria states.
Time to acknowledge Ukraine’s democratic gains
Despite considerable opposition in both Moscow and Brussels to Ukraine’s European integrationist ambitions, Mr. Nemyria paints a persuasive picture of the country’s Euro credentials, arguing that Kyiv has not yet received the kind of EU recognition it deserves for the successes of the past 17 years in avoiding some of the worse excesses which followed the Soviet collapse.
He points to the absence of any ethnic violence in independent Ukraine as one of the country’s greatest achievements, and despite growing public disillusionment with the country’s squabbling political class remains defiantly upbeat about Ukraine’s embryonic parliamentary pluralism. “Despite the democratic mess we seem to be continually witnessing, the country’s democratic institutions are actually becoming more stable,” he claims. “According to European standards the last three Ukrainian elections in a row have been democratic. This is a very precious value in today’s world, especially given the reemergence of authoritarian trends in the region. We have consistently said since 2004 that the Orange Revolution was not a choice between the West and Russia, but a choice between democracy and authoritarianism.”
Having made their choice, Ukrainians now find themselves waiting for their political class to catch up before it is too late.“The political impasse in the country must be resolved in some way,” argues Mr. Nemyria. “What is at stake is a chance for Ukraine to move decisively towards the EU. There is practically consensus both on a public level and on a political level in favour of EU integration. We now need to offer the minimum level of stability to be reliable partners in the process.”