BYuT UKRAINE
GOVERNMENT PORTAL
INFORM NEWSLETTER
Ukraine faces goundhog day
29 September 2008
Published in
Inform
issue #87
See the full issue here.
Many movie buffs will recall Groundhog Day in which a hapless Bill Murray has to relive a day that repeats itself again and again. Now Groundhog Day has come to Ukraine. Or that is what it feels like as the country’s political parties limber up for what will be the third parliamentary election in as many years. But is another election what the people really want? More importantly, is it what the nation really needs and what would it achieve?
Following the collapse of the democratic coalition, Ukraine’s political parties have begun a round of negotiations in the hope of agreeing on a coalition capable of governing the country and staving off another parliamentary election.
Limited Options
The different permutations of who might join who is fairly limited and in most instances the negotiation paths are well trodden. “It’s hardly a Rubik's Cube,” remarked a British businessman based in Kyiv, “the options for all the factions are fairly limited.”
The Bloc of Yulia Tymoshenko (BYuT) has made its position abundantly clear by calling for a re-constituted democratic coalition with the pro-presidential Our Ukraine - People’s Self-Defence (OU-PSD) bloc and Lytvyn bloc. It hopes the latter will be a stabilising influence and breathe new life into any democratic union. This centrist bloc, which represents the smallest faction in parliament, has 20 seats and is led by a former Verkhovna Rada (parliament) chairman, Volodymyr Lytvyn.
Last week Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko and Mr Lytvyn announced that they had concluded a coalition agreement and appealed for the democratic forces to unite. “This doesn’t require any talks – just write a note and return,” said the premier.
The re-establishment of a governing democratic coalition would be welcomed by at least half the lawmakers in the president’s bloc. In the vote to withdraw OU-PSD from the democratic coalition (on 3 September), the People’s Self-Defence Party, People’s Rukh Party, European Party and Party of the Defenders of the Fatherland, either voted against the president or abstained.
However, the chasm that separates BYuT from the president and his closest advisers seems only to have widened. Instead of advocating constructive dialogue, President Viktor Yushchenko took time out on his US visit to attack his former coalition partner – a move that reinforces the image of squabbling politicians unworthy of EU and Euro-Atlantic integration.
“Political groups have been trying to destabilise the situation and to lead the country to early presidential, parliamentary and local elections,” said President Yushchenko at a Council on Foreign Relations meeting in New York.
See the full issue here.
Many movie buffs will recall Groundhog Day in which a hapless Bill Murray has to relive a day that repeats itself again and again. Now Groundhog Day has come to Ukraine. Or that is what it feels like as the country’s political parties limber up for what will be the third parliamentary election in as many years. But is another election what the people really want? More importantly, is it what the nation really needs and what would it achieve?
Following the collapse of the democratic coalition, Ukraine’s political parties have begun a round of negotiations in the hope of agreeing on a coalition capable of governing the country and staving off another parliamentary election.
Limited Options
The different permutations of who might join who is fairly limited and in most instances the negotiation paths are well trodden. “It’s hardly a Rubik's Cube,” remarked a British businessman based in Kyiv, “the options for all the factions are fairly limited.”
The Bloc of Yulia Tymoshenko (BYuT) has made its position abundantly clear by calling for a re-constituted democratic coalition with the pro-presidential Our Ukraine - People’s Self-Defence (OU-PSD) bloc and Lytvyn bloc. It hopes the latter will be a stabilising influence and breathe new life into any democratic union. This centrist bloc, which represents the smallest faction in parliament, has 20 seats and is led by a former Verkhovna Rada (parliament) chairman, Volodymyr Lytvyn.
Last week Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko and Mr Lytvyn announced that they had concluded a coalition agreement and appealed for the democratic forces to unite. “This doesn’t require any talks – just write a note and return,” said the premier.
The re-establishment of a governing democratic coalition would be welcomed by at least half the lawmakers in the president’s bloc. In the vote to withdraw OU-PSD from the democratic coalition (on 3 September), the People’s Self-Defence Party, People’s Rukh Party, European Party and Party of the Defenders of the Fatherland, either voted against the president or abstained.
However, the chasm that separates BYuT from the president and his closest advisers seems only to have widened. Instead of advocating constructive dialogue, President Viktor Yushchenko took time out on his US visit to attack his former coalition partner – a move that reinforces the image of squabbling politicians unworthy of EU and Euro-Atlantic integration.
“Political groups have been trying to destabilise the situation and to lead the country to early presidential, parliamentary and local elections,” said President Yushchenko at a Council on Foreign Relations meeting in New York.
BYuT and the Party of Regions
It is increasingly unlikely that a coalition could be formed between BYuT and the Party of Regions. Ukraine’s richest man and Party of Regions stalwart, Rinat Akhmetov has made it clear he would not countenance such a pairing, and, even if policy compromises were somehow miraculously made, it is unlikely there is sufficient trust on both sides to bring about what many of their party faithful would regard as an “unholy union.”
A coalition between OU-PSD and the Party of Regions in a re-run of last year’s National Unity Coalition is even more unlikely. So what happens next?
Looming Elections Not in Anyone’s Best Interests
Perhaps a recent interview by Viktor Baloha, Chief of Staff of the President’s Secretariat, with Ukrayinska Pravda provides a clue. Mr Baloha said that he was 101 percent confident that a snap poll will take place. And while he said that the president was willing to work with any coalition, he remarked, “he has enough means to offer tough resistance to any nonconstitutional intent.” He then referred to the last dismissal of parliament by the president:“It happened in the spring of 2007, and the same will happen now.”
Some believe that an election is already a foregone conclusion. They consider that even if a new coalition government is formed, the president will find an excuse to dismiss it and call a return to the ballot box.
A top emerging market expert visiting Ukraine last week told Inform, “An election would be a disaster – it would be the worst possible scenario given what is happening in the market.”
The fear is that the uncertainty of a new election could push Ukraine’s spluttering economy over the edge. The recent hammering of Ukraine’s PFTS Stock Market Index, which saw trading twice suspended (see Inform Issue 85), and the marked rise in the cost of borrowing for the state and Ukrainian companies already indicate a lack of confidence. A fact compounded last Thursday when Fitch Ratings downgraded Ukraine’s sovereign rating, warning of a risk of a currency crisis as economic fundamentals deteriorate and concern over another election. A key barometer, Ukraine’s long-term foreign currency IDR was affirmed by Fitch at BB- based on an outlook changed from “Stable” to “Negative.”
Depriving Citizens of Government
Fresh elections would again deprive Ukrainian citizens of a functioning government for months. It would come at a time when the country is being buffeted by the global credit crunch, inflationary pressure and currency issues.
“We must not allow a new election, which would sow further chaos and destroy the country,” said Ms Tymoshenko.
If you ask ordinary Ukrainian citizens they will tell you that the last thing they want is another election.
It is hard to see how an election is in anyone’s interests. The president’s bloc is languishing in the ratings. Serhii Rakhmanin, writing in Zerkalo Nedeli, opined: “The never ending squabbles inside the pro-presidential bloc Our Ukraine – People’s Self-Defence and his indecently low popularity make electoral prospects rather grim. Experts predict that the political force running for parliament under Yushchenko’s banner might collect between three and severn percent of votes – far less than last year.”
He goes on to say “Yushchenko does not trust ratings. Or else he would never even think of a second term,” and that “Yushchenko’s tactical objective is to remove Tymoshenko from the post of Prime Minister and he sees the main strategic threat in Tymoshenko’s presidency.”
Ms Tymoshenko suggested on Friday that if a pre-term parliamentary election takes place then it would be logical to hold a simultaneous presidential election, “as it will allow us to overcome the present crisis and reshape the political turf.”
Many believe that the president’s lemming-like rush to an election will be his downfall and that he is blinded by Viktor Baloha in whom he vests an unusual amount of trust.
No Magic Wand in Sight
Others contend that Ukraine’s politicians are obligated to return to the polls until they get it right. But could an election ever be the magic wand that puts an end to the division? According to Oleksandr Turchynov, First Deputy Prime Minister, “the issue is more fundamental than that, what we need is constitutional reform to break the deadlock.”
It is a sobering thought that no matter what colour party is in office, there can be no political stability if the constitution pits one branch of power against another.
Sadly, the constant meddling by the president in the affairs of government left BYuT with no alternative but to seek to push Ukraine firmly down the path of becoming a parliamentary-presidential democracy, where the Cabinet of Ministers is the primary source of executive power.
The collapse of the government and prospect of another election are just the latest manifestations of this conflict. Accordingly, it is doubtful any election outcome could resolve this underlying issue. Ukraine would once more be at the mercy of a government set on a collision course with the president.
An election would be costly, unpopular and come at a time when the nation least needs it - a time when most developed countries are desperately trying to fend off recession and the alarming prospect of a global financial meltdown.
What Ukraine needs now is unity and not to awake to another Groundhog Day.
It is increasingly unlikely that a coalition could be formed between BYuT and the Party of Regions. Ukraine’s richest man and Party of Regions stalwart, Rinat Akhmetov has made it clear he would not countenance such a pairing, and, even if policy compromises were somehow miraculously made, it is unlikely there is sufficient trust on both sides to bring about what many of their party faithful would regard as an “unholy union.”
A coalition between OU-PSD and the Party of Regions in a re-run of last year’s National Unity Coalition is even more unlikely. So what happens next?
Looming Elections Not in Anyone’s Best Interests
Perhaps a recent interview by Viktor Baloha, Chief of Staff of the President’s Secretariat, with Ukrayinska Pravda provides a clue. Mr Baloha said that he was 101 percent confident that a snap poll will take place. And while he said that the president was willing to work with any coalition, he remarked, “he has enough means to offer tough resistance to any nonconstitutional intent.” He then referred to the last dismissal of parliament by the president:“It happened in the spring of 2007, and the same will happen now.”
Some believe that an election is already a foregone conclusion. They consider that even if a new coalition government is formed, the president will find an excuse to dismiss it and call a return to the ballot box.
A top emerging market expert visiting Ukraine last week told Inform, “An election would be a disaster – it would be the worst possible scenario given what is happening in the market.”
The fear is that the uncertainty of a new election could push Ukraine’s spluttering economy over the edge. The recent hammering of Ukraine’s PFTS Stock Market Index, which saw trading twice suspended (see Inform Issue 85), and the marked rise in the cost of borrowing for the state and Ukrainian companies already indicate a lack of confidence. A fact compounded last Thursday when Fitch Ratings downgraded Ukraine’s sovereign rating, warning of a risk of a currency crisis as economic fundamentals deteriorate and concern over another election. A key barometer, Ukraine’s long-term foreign currency IDR was affirmed by Fitch at BB- based on an outlook changed from “Stable” to “Negative.”
Depriving Citizens of Government
Fresh elections would again deprive Ukrainian citizens of a functioning government for months. It would come at a time when the country is being buffeted by the global credit crunch, inflationary pressure and currency issues.
“We must not allow a new election, which would sow further chaos and destroy the country,” said Ms Tymoshenko.
If you ask ordinary Ukrainian citizens they will tell you that the last thing they want is another election.
It is hard to see how an election is in anyone’s interests. The president’s bloc is languishing in the ratings. Serhii Rakhmanin, writing in Zerkalo Nedeli, opined: “The never ending squabbles inside the pro-presidential bloc Our Ukraine – People’s Self-Defence and his indecently low popularity make electoral prospects rather grim. Experts predict that the political force running for parliament under Yushchenko’s banner might collect between three and severn percent of votes – far less than last year.”
He goes on to say “Yushchenko does not trust ratings. Or else he would never even think of a second term,” and that “Yushchenko’s tactical objective is to remove Tymoshenko from the post of Prime Minister and he sees the main strategic threat in Tymoshenko’s presidency.”
Ms Tymoshenko suggested on Friday that if a pre-term parliamentary election takes place then it would be logical to hold a simultaneous presidential election, “as it will allow us to overcome the present crisis and reshape the political turf.”
Many believe that the president’s lemming-like rush to an election will be his downfall and that he is blinded by Viktor Baloha in whom he vests an unusual amount of trust.
No Magic Wand in Sight
Others contend that Ukraine’s politicians are obligated to return to the polls until they get it right. But could an election ever be the magic wand that puts an end to the division? According to Oleksandr Turchynov, First Deputy Prime Minister, “the issue is more fundamental than that, what we need is constitutional reform to break the deadlock.”
It is a sobering thought that no matter what colour party is in office, there can be no political stability if the constitution pits one branch of power against another.
Sadly, the constant meddling by the president in the affairs of government left BYuT with no alternative but to seek to push Ukraine firmly down the path of becoming a parliamentary-presidential democracy, where the Cabinet of Ministers is the primary source of executive power.
The collapse of the government and prospect of another election are just the latest manifestations of this conflict. Accordingly, it is doubtful any election outcome could resolve this underlying issue. Ukraine would once more be at the mercy of a government set on a collision course with the president.
An election would be costly, unpopular and come at a time when the nation least needs it - a time when most developed countries are desperately trying to fend off recession and the alarming prospect of a global financial meltdown.
What Ukraine needs now is unity and not to awake to another Groundhog Day.