FT Interview with
Hryhoriy Nemyria
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Voters Have Last Chance to Save Orange Revolution in Tense Run-off
21 January 2010
Published in
Inform
issue #137
See the full issue here.
If the first round of Ukraine’s presidential elections was a game of soccer then the half-time result would be 0-0, with both teams poised to win or lose in the second half. This follows the preliminary results from the Central Election Commission, which confirms a 10 percentage point gap between the leading candidate in the polls, Viktor Yanukovych, and Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko. Mr Yanukovych, the twice convicted leader of the oligarch dominated Party of Regions polled 35.32 percent, with Ms Tymoshenko in second place with 25.05 percent of the vote. As neither candidate polled more than 50 percent, the pair will face each other in a head-to-head contest on 7 February.
Political analysts believe there is potential for the premier to close the gap. This is because some voters who supported the other pro-democratic candidates will switch their allegiance to Ms Tymoshenko, in a desperate bid to keep out Mr Yanukovych.
See the full issue here.
If the first round of Ukraine’s presidential elections was a game of soccer then the half-time result would be 0-0, with both teams poised to win or lose in the second half. This follows the preliminary results from the Central Election Commission, which confirms a 10 percentage point gap between the leading candidate in the polls, Viktor Yanukovych, and Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko. Mr Yanukovych, the twice convicted leader of the oligarch dominated Party of Regions polled 35.32 percent, with Ms Tymoshenko in second place with 25.05 percent of the vote. As neither candidate polled more than 50 percent, the pair will face each other in a head-to-head contest on 7 February.
Political analysts believe there is potential for the premier to close the gap. This is because some voters who supported the other pro-democratic candidates will switch their allegiance to Ms Tymoshenko, in a desperate bid to keep out Mr Yanukovych.
From her election night headquarters at Kyiv’s
Hyatt Hotel, and again at the opening of the
Cabinet of Ministers meeting on Wednesday, Ms
Tymoshenko reminded journalists that 60 percent of
Ukrainians voted for democratic candidates.
“This gives us hope, I would even say this gives us confidence in the second round,” said Ms Tymoshenko, “the 60 percent of voters who cast ballots in the first round for different candidates but voted for a democratic choice gives Ukraine hope,” she said.
Support for democratic forces has proven to be an enduring legacy of the Orange Revolution. In elections in 2004, 2006, 2007 and now 2010, a majority of Ukrainians opted for democratic candidates. However, this pattern in no way guarantees a Tymoshenko victory in the second round.
The big loser in the election was President Yushchenko who polled 5.45 percent. In contrast, the former banker and Minister for the Economy, Sergey Tigipko, came a credible third with 13.06 percent. He now finds himself in the position of kingmaker alongside fourth placed Arseniy Yateseniuk on 6.96 percent.
So far, Mr Tigipko is keeping his cards close to his chest and talking to both camps. "I have now taken up a position of neutrality,” he said, admitting that he had taken offers. One was to be made by Prime Minister by Ms Tymoshenko.
Some experts warn that Mr Tigipko should not deliberate too long as his voters are not parliamentary seats that belong to him. Many are middle-class people who will be appalled at the prospect of a Yanukovych presidency.
According to Taras Chornovil, the former Party of Regions lawmaker, “Tymoshenko has a 66 percent probability to become president, while Yanukovych only 33 percent. It explains why there is no true rejoicing among the Yanukovych team. The 10 percent lead can be easily bridged by Tymoshenko.”
Such thinking is based on the fact that Mr Yanukovych has already accessed most of his support and has fewer resources to draw upon in the second round. His best bet is to try to attract the supporters of the Communist Party led by Petro Symonenko.
Second Round Will be Close
What all observers agree upon is that the outcome of the second round will be close. Negative voting, that is voting against the candidate you dislike most is likely to play a big part in the next round.
Ms Tymoshenko is reaching out to the voters of other democratic candidates. “Let us start the process of uniting the democratic forces and do this in such a way that in a run-off Yanukovych has no chance.” She pledged to listen to those who voted for other democratic candidates and to incorporate elements of other candidate programmes into hers in order to achieve unity. “I am ready to be a partner, ready to build and bring about a consensus… I will not let you down,” she said.
Appealing to Mr Yushchenko’s voters, Deputy Prime Minister Hryhoriy Nemyria said, “Those that voted for him need to get behind Yulia Tymoshenko if they want to preserve the country’s national identity.” He reminded journalists of the choice facing voters. “Yanukovych will turn back the clock and trap Ukraine in a grey zone between Russia and the west, while Tymoshenko will strengthen democracy and take Ukraine to the very heart of Europe. The choice is a simple one.”
“This gives us hope, I would even say this gives us confidence in the second round,” said Ms Tymoshenko, “the 60 percent of voters who cast ballots in the first round for different candidates but voted for a democratic choice gives Ukraine hope,” she said.
Support for democratic forces has proven to be an enduring legacy of the Orange Revolution. In elections in 2004, 2006, 2007 and now 2010, a majority of Ukrainians opted for democratic candidates. However, this pattern in no way guarantees a Tymoshenko victory in the second round.
The big loser in the election was President Yushchenko who polled 5.45 percent. In contrast, the former banker and Minister for the Economy, Sergey Tigipko, came a credible third with 13.06 percent. He now finds himself in the position of kingmaker alongside fourth placed Arseniy Yateseniuk on 6.96 percent.
So far, Mr Tigipko is keeping his cards close to his chest and talking to both camps. "I have now taken up a position of neutrality,” he said, admitting that he had taken offers. One was to be made by Prime Minister by Ms Tymoshenko.
Some experts warn that Mr Tigipko should not deliberate too long as his voters are not parliamentary seats that belong to him. Many are middle-class people who will be appalled at the prospect of a Yanukovych presidency.
According to Taras Chornovil, the former Party of Regions lawmaker, “Tymoshenko has a 66 percent probability to become president, while Yanukovych only 33 percent. It explains why there is no true rejoicing among the Yanukovych team. The 10 percent lead can be easily bridged by Tymoshenko.”
Such thinking is based on the fact that Mr Yanukovych has already accessed most of his support and has fewer resources to draw upon in the second round. His best bet is to try to attract the supporters of the Communist Party led by Petro Symonenko.
Second Round Will be Close
What all observers agree upon is that the outcome of the second round will be close. Negative voting, that is voting against the candidate you dislike most is likely to play a big part in the next round.
Ms Tymoshenko is reaching out to the voters of other democratic candidates. “Let us start the process of uniting the democratic forces and do this in such a way that in a run-off Yanukovych has no chance.” She pledged to listen to those who voted for other democratic candidates and to incorporate elements of other candidate programmes into hers in order to achieve unity. “I am ready to be a partner, ready to build and bring about a consensus… I will not let you down,” she said.
Appealing to Mr Yushchenko’s voters, Deputy Prime Minister Hryhoriy Nemyria said, “Those that voted for him need to get behind Yulia Tymoshenko if they want to preserve the country’s national identity.” He reminded journalists of the choice facing voters. “Yanukovych will turn back the clock and trap Ukraine in a grey zone between Russia and the west, while Tymoshenko will strengthen democracy and take Ukraine to the very heart of Europe. The choice is a simple one.”